自11月初开始，终端市场钢材需求不断减弱，但与之同时，钢厂产量并未出现明显下降，期货市场随之不断跳水，而钢坯等原材料价格也随之不断下挫。截止发稿时，钢坯现货价格跌150元/吨至3120元/吨，较11月初跌860元/吨。现货随即开启下跌模式，且跌幅远超预期，各区域建材跌幅在500-1000元/吨。结合目前市场情况来看，一方面，，钢价不断下行，中间商户拿货积极性不高，且钢厂停产检修意愿不强，社会库存不断下降，而钢厂库存不断上升。供需矛盾慢慢集聚。另一方面，北方需求降至冰点、南方价格又不断大幅下行，跌幅近千，北材南下不断受阻。现货跌幅何时见底，成为广大商户最关心的问题，那么笔者将从几个方面简单的对目前市场情况进行分析；

一、限产力度弱于往年，高供给低需求成最大矛盾点

今年螺纹钢期货做多的最核心逻辑是环保限产，但9月以来各种迹象都已表明今年秋冬季环保限产力度会弱于去年，今年供暖期钢市干预力度有所放缓，没有采取“一刀切”政策，而是采用灵活的错峰生产方案。即使主流钢厂高炉限产力度较强，但成品材供给并不会出现大幅缩减，10月金秋旺季需求启动，在高利润驱使下，螺纹钢产量持续创新高，于11月初达到顶峰，但需求端由于季节性走弱，因此高位的供给和趋弱的需求是主力空头一直打压盘面的原因。

二、南方回调幅度大 北材南下受阻

随着天气转冷，北方工地需求下降，加之雨雪降温开工受限，北材南下成为北方钢厂冬季资源流向之一。但受环保限产力度偏弱影响下，今年资源南下压力加大，甚至部分区域主动减少区域内火运钢材接收量，这也导致华东、华南地区承受库存回升及低价冲击的双层打压，造成这些区域跌幅大，且跌势较快。由表中看出，此次跌幅较大的区域在上海、杭州、重庆、郑州、北京等区域，这也导致北材南下变成真正的“北材难下”。

三、移仓换月来临 基差有望进一步修复

其一，期货即将移仓换月，部分获利空头提前离场或转入远期合约；其二，目前期现货基差仍有250—300元/吨水平，而1901合约离交割仅有不到两个月时间，基差有望进一步得到修复。其三、市场普遍对明年预期悲观，贸易商冬储意愿不足，因此后期螺纹钢期价不可避免会继续走弱。另外，从技术层面来看，看跌形势依然不改。

目前钢市仍处下跌通道，后期关注点聚焦于政策性利好以及冬储需求上，在没有明确性利好“指路”下，钢价弱势格局短期或难改。

Since the beginning of November, steel demand in the terminal market has been weakening, but at the same time, steel mill output has not declined significantly, the futures market has continued to dive, and the price of raw materials such as billets has also been falling. By the time of submission, the spot price of billet had dropped 150 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of November. Spot immediately opened the decline mode, and the decline was much higher than expected, building materials in various regions fell by 500-1000 yuan/ton. Considering the current market situation, on the one hand, steel prices continue to decline, the enthusiasm of middlemen is not high, and the willingness of steel mills to stop production and repair is not strong, social stocks continue to decline, and steel mills inventory continues to rise. Contradictions between supply and demand are gathering slowly. On the other hand, demand in the North has fallen to freezing point, and prices in the South have continued to fall sharply, with a drop of nearly a thousand, which has hindered the southward movement of Beibu. When the spot decline bottoms out has become the most concerned issue for the majority of merchants, so the author will make a brief analysis of the current market situation from several aspects.
1. Limitation of production is weaker than in previous years, and the contradiction between high supply and low demand is the greatest.
This year, the most core logic of the threaded steel futures is to limit production by environmental protection. However, since September, various signs have shown that this autumn and winter will be weaker than last year. This year, the intervention of the steel market has slowed down. Instead of adopting a "one-size-fits-all" policy, flexible peak staggering production scheme has been adopted. The supply of finished products will not shrink dramatically even though the blast furnace capacity of mainstream steel plants is strong. Demand starts in the golden autumn of October. Driven by high profits, the output of threaded steel keeps breaking new ground and peaks at the beginning of November. However, due to seasonal weakening of demand, high supply and weak demand are the main shorts. The reason why the disk has been depressed.
2. The Southern Callback Amplitude is Greater and Beibusai is Blocked in the Southern
With the cooling of the weather, the demand for construction sites in the north is decreasing, and the start of construction is limited by the rain and snow, so the southward descent of Beijingluo becomes one of the winter resource flows in the northern steel works. However, due to the weakness of environmental production restriction, the downward pressure of resources has increased this year, and even some regions have taken the initiative to reduce the volume of fired steel in the region. This has also led to the double-layer pressure of inventory rebound and low price shocks in eastern and southern China, resulting in large declines in these regions and a faster decline. As can be seen from the table, the region with a larger decline in this period is in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Beijing and other regions, which has also led to the downward movement of Beibei to become a real "difficult downfall of Beibei".
3. Base difference is expected to be further repaired when warehouse transfer and monthly change come.
Firstly, futures are about to change positions for a month, and some profit bears leave the market ahead of schedule or turn into forward contracts; secondly, the current spot basis difference is still 250-300 yuan/ton, while the 1901 contract is less than two months away from delivery, and the basis difference is expected to be further repaired. Third, the market is generally pessimistic about next year's expectations, traders are not willing to store in winter, so the future price of threaded steel will inevitably continue to weaken in the later period. In addition, from a technical point of view, the bearish situation remains unchanged.
At present, the steel market is still in the downward channel. Later attention is focused on policy-oriented and winter storage demand. Without a clear good "guide", the weak pattern of steel prices is short-term or difficult to change.